From Shaman’s Rock
by Jim Poling Sr.
Many of us got fooled with ice out predictions this year.
The mild, almost non-existent winter, had many predicting ice off the lakes in March. There just wasn’t enough really cold weather to make typical winter ice, so predictions of a really early boating season didn’t hold up.
Now here we are in the first week of April with ice still covering some lakes and beginning to break up on others. Ice out on most Haliburton lakes typically is mid-to-late April, sometimes early May. But that’s changing and it’s going to change more.
Studies show that ice duration times across North America have decreased over the 19th and 20th centuries. Ice cover on the Great Lakes reached historic lows this past winter.
Maximum ice coverage on the Great Lakes usually occurs in late February or early March and on average it covers roughly 53 per cent of the open water. On Feb. 11 this year Great Lakes’ ice coverage was measured at only 2.7 per cent.
In the Haliburton and surrounding regions, ice forming later and leaving earlier has resulted in 4.4 fewer days of ice coverage over 10 years.
There are indications that the number of lake ice days will decrease even more. One report predicts that fall freeze-up could occur five to 15 days later by mid-century. It also says that spring breakup could occur 10 to 25 days earlier than now.
It’s all being blamed on global warming. The last 10 months have seen record world heat and 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850.
Fewer days of winter ice leave lakes open longer to absorb sunlight faster, warm up sooner and stay warmer longer. Temperature changes can affect plankton and other organisms, causing some to die.
Lake trout and whitefish feed on plankton, so less of it could cause fish populations to shrink. That could lead to tighter fishing quotas and even higher prices for fish at grocery stores.
Other significant changes could result from having less winter lake ice. Lakes wide open longer will result in more evaporation, which could help create weather changes, including more storms.
More storms over open water also could result in increased shoreline damage.
There is not much solid evidence of what fewer winter ice days could do to our world. Just a lot of theories.
Certainly, we saw how poor ice conditions hurt the economy this past winter. Snowmobiling, cross-country skiing, snowshoeing and ice fishing were almost non-existent this past winter. The money these activities bring to local businesses was reduced dramatically.
Other effects, some a bit bizarre, are starting to show. One unusual one involves the mystery of wolves on Isle Royale in Lake Superior.
Researchers have been studying the relationship between Isle Royale wolves and moose since 1958.
The study relies on the use of small aircraft to ferry researchers to and from the island. The planes land on lake ice that usually surrounds the island. This year there was not enough safe ice for landing and the study was suspended.
There has not been much study of winter ice trends on inland lakes. But certainly, much more will be needed if researchers are correct in predicting a continuing decline in lake ice days.
Fewer lake ice days mean more warming, which brings changing weather, different animal migration and plant flowering patterns. It also means that pathogens that have not been able to survive our winter cold could start moving north, carrying diseases not commonly seen here in the past.
All of us will have to start thinking about how to live with these changing conditions.
As Angelica Ingram, Haliburton County tourism manager was quoted as saying in late January:
“This year, so many businesses and organizations have had to pivot. They thought outside the box for the past month about how they can still offer experiences in the county without snow, And, at the tourism department, we’re making similar plans for the coming years, should we continue to see less snow and late ice freezing.”
